For a number of reasons, I never walk into a casino thinking I’m going to win at any of the table games or slot machines I sit down to play at.
One reason may be the fact that today just wasn’t my day, so why would karma suddenly flip its recent trend to allow me some brief form of monetary gratification.
Another could be that I haven’t won in a while, so what makes today any different than all the other times I lost the money I came here with.
A final reason could lay in the fact that I actually have won recently, and I know that all good things must come to an end. No, none of these reasons are why I feel that stepping up to the Spanish 21 table today is a terrible idea.
I am not a man who ever blames one person for the table losing, or a man who singles out the person sitting at third base being the reason why we all lost. I am a man who absolutely despises those of you who never hit your 12’s against a dealer’s 6 up card, and I blame you for why I may lose.
Before I get to that, lets look at the logistics to Spanish 21. Typically, a casino will have six decks of cards, in some cases eight, with all 10’s removed from the decks of cards. This means that you are starting with either 288 or 384 cards when the dealer first whips the cards out of the shoe, which is the instrument holding the cards. In this case, we’ll use the six-card deck, which is very common at casinos in our area.
The problem with most blackjack players is the common misconception of assuming there is a card with a value of 10 underneath the dealer’s up-card, that being a jack, queen or king. For all the hands seen in one shoe, it’s absurd to assume that every time the dealer has a 10 underneath, since the total number of cards in the deck with this value is only 72 cards or 25 percent.
Playing with this assumption means that every time a dealer is showing an 8, 9 or face, the player should in theory be hitting their 17’s, 18’s and even 19’s, knowing they’re drawing dead, or going to lose regardless. Yet most people don’t do this, which is obviously a very good decision considering the likelihood of their hand busting, meaning they’re hand will go over 21.
Since it seems farfetched to be hitting such high hands, it only goes to show that if you assume what the dealer has, you need to play with this consistent manner every time you play.
The lack of consistency at the table is the biggest problem I see and where I find myself aggravated when people shy away from hitting 12’s against a 6.
Many people I have watched and played Spanish 21 with seem to think that their 12 will be good against the dealers 6, and show no confidence or guts in trying to improve their hands. They’re simply hoping that the dealer shows a face card, followed by another bust card that allows them to squeak by with a win. The odds are, however, in their favor to hit their 12, knowing that there is a 75 percent chance of improving their hand without busting. Pretty good odds against the house I’d like to think.
Not hitting your 12 can result in a number of things. First off, the dealer may in fact have a face card underneath, and now have a 42 percent chance of making their hand without busting by hitting for an ace, 2, 3, 4 or 5.
One of the worst scenarios to arise though is the dealer holding an ace underneath, called a soft 17. In this situation, the dealer at worst will hit their hand again, and if they don’t hit for a 4 or less, a 33 percent chance, they now have a second opportunity to make their hand with a number of cards. This second go round once again gives the dealer a 42 percent chance to make their hand, leaving that lonesome 12 looking on at the uncertainty of the situation.
I’m no mathematician, but it seems strange that people let their 12’s ride rather then trying to improve their hand, given the odds being in their favor. Hitting also leaves the possibility you’re taking the card away that the dealer needs.
Don’t be afraid to hit your 12’s folks, especially against those pesky 6’s. It could be the difference in you winning the hand and having a great shoe, or losing the hand and pissing people like me off at the table.
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